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Understanding the 7 Headwinds in Today’s Housing Market

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May 26, 2024

Navigating today's real estate market is akin to traversing through a complex labyrinth. The housing market is fraught with challenges, and whether you're buying or selling, understanding these hurdles is essential. Let's delve into the major headwinds in the current housing market and look at a few strategies that can help you succeed.

Interest Rates Surge

The pulse of the real estate market is dictated by interest rates. Today's 30-year rates are hovering around 7%. This well below the historic 23-year high of 8.01% we saw in October, but still elevated compared to earlier this year when the average sank as low as 6.36%. Compared to three years ago in 2021, rates are over three times higher. 1 Higher rates mean higher monthly payments, making homes less affordable. Buyers must budget carefully to manage these costs.

Limited Housing Inventory

There's a significant shortage of available homes. High mortgage rates continue to deter homeowners from selling, for fear of giving up their locked-in low rates. This results in a market with many buyers vying for few available homes, creating a supply and demand imbalance. The pandemic, inflation, and rising home prices continue to further contribute to the shortage.

Escalating Home Insurance Premiums

According to a study by Guaranteed Rate Insurance, home insurance prices have increased 19% in 2023 and 55% since 2019.2 Home insurance premiums have skyrocketed, with the average annual cost now around $2,000, placing a heavy financial load on homeowners. While inflation has slowed down, insurance rates are reactionary. The cost of home insurance is still increasing due to the impact inflation has had on the previous losses experienced by insurance companies, the elevated cost of building materials and the future risk posed by extreme weather.

Natural Disasters and Uninsurability

Keeping homeowners insurance has become an increasingly tough task for millions of Americans. Natural disasters are more frequent and severe. Wildfires, hurricanes, and floods drive up insurance costs. Homeowners depend on their insurance policies to help with the steep price of paying for damages to their property in the event of accidents and bad weather. But insurers say they're backing out of certain states because the chance of extreme damage from flood, hurricane or fires makes it too expensive to insure residents.

Region-Specific Hurdles

Major insurance companies have stopped writing new homeowner policies in extreme-weather states like California and Florida, forcing residents there to find another insurer at a higher premium. In Florida, property claims represent a small fraction of the national total, yet they account for a disproportionate number of lawsuits, complicating the insurance landscape. The California Department of Insurance approved requests this year from major insurance companies to increase rates by 15-20% for policies that are being renewed.

National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) Dilemma

Established in 1968, the NFIP was designed to insure properties near water bodies. However, recent hurricanes have inflicted significant financial damage on the program. Historically low, taxpayer-subsidized rates are being adjusted to align with private insurers, leading to substantial premium increases for policyholders. This adjustment aims to sustain the program financially but places a heavier burden on homeowners.

Soaring Property Taxes

Property taxes in the U.S. have surged, with collections from single-family homes experiencing a nearly 7% uptick in 2023, amounting to $363 billion. The average homeowner now pays over $4,000 in property taxes, a 4% rise from the previous year. These increases are tied to inflation, higher public employee salaries, and other governmental expenses. Continuation of this trend could lead to unexpected tax burdens for homeowners, especially in states with high property tax rates.

Impact on Buyers & Sellers

Buyers face higher costs from interest rates, insurance, and taxes. It's important to budget wisely and consider all expenses. Understanding these headwinds can help buyers make informed decisions.

Sellers struggle to attract buyers in high-risk areas. Uninsurability and rising costs deter potential buyers. Sellers will need to highlight their home's advantages and be ready to negotiate.

Strategies for Buyers

  • Research Thoroughly: Know the local market and potential risks.
  • Get Pre-Approved: Secure financing to strengthen your buying position.
  • Consider Insurance Costs: Factor in higher premiums when budgeting.
  • Negotiate Wisely: Be prepared to negotiate price and terms.

Strategies for Sellers

  • Highlight Strengths: Emphasize your home's unique features.
  • Be Flexible: Willingness to negotiate can attract more buyers.
  • Stay Informed: Understand the local market trends and challenges.
  • Enhance Appeal: Make improvements to increase your home's value.

Today's journey to homeownership demands meticulous attention to financial factors, insurance challenges, and the risks of natural disasters. With interest rates and insurance costs expected to remain high, staying updated on market trends is vital for both buyers and sellers. Seeking professional financial and legal advice, staying informed, and being proactive are essential strategies to successfully navigate these complexities.

The quest for homeownership today requires careful consideration of financial factors, insurance challenges, and the risks posed by natural disasters. With interest rates and insurance costs expected to remain high, staying updated on market trends is vital for both buyers and sellers. Staying updated on market trends is crucial for buyers and sellers to find opportunities. Seeking professional financial and legal advice, staying informed, and being proactive are essential strategies to successfully navigate these complexities.


Sources
1 Investopedia: Market Rates 5/23/24
2 Guaranteed Rate Insurance: How to Navigate the Home Insurance Market in 2024

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About the author

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Matt Goldstein

Managing Director, Private CFO®

Matt grew up just outside Washington DC in Silver Spring MD. He attended Florida State University and completed The Wharton School of Business executive leadership program. Outside of work Matt is a family man and loves spending time with his wife Michele and his two daughters, Mackenzie a freshman at Emory University, and Lexi a Freshman in high school and his two dogs. Matt is also an avid ultra-endurance athlete and loves training for his next big race. He has completed 17 marathons and qualified and finished the Boston Marathon twice, 3 Ironman triathlons, and multiple Ultra trail marathons including a 100K. In August he will be attempting the Leadville 100 which is one of the toughest ultras in the world.

Securities offered through Kestra Investment Services, LLC (Kestra IS), member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services offered through Kestra Advisory Services, LLC (Kestra AS), an affiliate of Kestra IS. oXYGen Financial is not affiliated with Kestra IS or Kestra AS. Kestra IS and Kestra AS do not provide tax or legal advice. Investor Disclosures: https://bit.ly/KF-Disclosures

The opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and may not necessarily reflect those held by Kestra Investment Services, LLC or Kestra Advisory Services, LLC. This is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual. It is suggested that you consult your financial professional, attorney, or tax advisor with regard to your individual situation.

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Securities offered through Kestra Investment Services, LLC (Kestra IS), member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services offered through Kestra Advisory Services, LLC (Kestra AS), an affiliate of Kestra IS. oXYGen Financial is not affiliated with Kestra IS or Kestra AS. Kestra IS and Kestra AS do not provide tax or legal advice. https://Bit.ly/KF-Disclosures

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